Constraining the carbon cycle in JULES-ES-1.0 to inform UKESM

Code goes beyond McNeall et al. (2022) “Constraining the carbon cycle in JULES-ES-1.0”, in order to inform a new ensemble of UKESM.

0.1 Failure analysis

1 Visualising the ensemble range

It’s important to remember that the design of the experiment is multiplication factors of the original parameters. This might be important for the “hold” value in a sensitivity analysis, as the “standard” value and the median value of the ensemble will not be the same.

1.1 Wave00/Wave01 Ensemble behaviour in key (constraining) outputs.

Global mean for the 20 years at the end of the 20th Century. There is still a significant low bias on cVeg output.

1.2 What proportion of wave01 fall within Andy Wiltshire’s constraints?

Just under a third. Points at a significant model discrepency in cVeg

Of the 400 members of the wave01 ensemble, 128 pass Andy Wiltshire’s Level 2 constraints.

[1] 128
[1] 0.32

1.3 Constraining to level 2 with the emulator

[1] 12.252

1.4 Adding further constraints

2 First, cumulative NBP